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As the December 2024 elections draw closer, a final poll by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that John Dramani Mahama, the opposition leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is maintaining a clear lead over his closest rival, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
According to the poll, Mahama is leading with 51.1% of committed voters, while Bawumia trails at 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako hold 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively, with other candidates accounting for 1.3%.
Even under the unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama retains a lead with 49.3% of the vote, compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%.
One of the key challenges highlighted in the poll is voter apathy, particularly within the NPP. The poll shows that 16% of potential non-voters are NPP supporters, while only 3% of NDC supporters fall into this category. Floating voters and those who declined to reveal their affiliations make up a significant portion of those likely to abstain from voting, at 38% and 39%, respectively.
Mahama has a significant lead among floating voters, commanding a 54% to 23% advantage over Bawumia—a 31-point margin. He also holds an 18-point lead among voters who have not disclosed their party affiliations. Additionally, Mahama has improved his standing among first-time voters, leading Bawumia 46% to 38%, up from a tie in July 2024.
A concerning trend for Bawumia is a drop in support among Muslim voters, a key demographic for his campaign. His backing from this group has fallen by nearly 4% between July and October 2024.
The poll also reveals that a portion of voters who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 have shifted their allegiance. While 70% of those voters remain loyal to Bawumia, 19% now support Mahama, and 5% each have moved to Kyeremanten and Bediako. In key regions like Greater Accra and Central, 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters have switched to Mahama.
Regionally, Mahama leads in 12 areas, including Greater Accra, Central, and the newly gained Bono region. Bawumia, meanwhile, dominates in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.
Independent candidates Bediako and Kyeremanten are also making their presence felt, particularly in the Eastern and Ashanti regions, where they are eroding Bawumia’s support. In the Ashanti region, where the NPP traditionally seeks to secure 85% of the vote, Bawumia is polling at 66%, while Mahama sits at 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyeremanten at 4%.
Mahama is outperforming NDC parliamentary candidates in 56 out of 111 constituencies, whereas Bawumia is trailing his party’s candidates in 79 constituencies, reflecting the disruptive potential of the independent candidates.
Voters are primarily concerned about the economy, jobs, and education as the elections approach. The economy tops the list of issues, with 70% of respondents citing it as their main concern, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%). Additionally, 55% of voters are influenced by the current economic conditions, while 40% consider party performance, 34% look at candidate credibility, and 28% are focused on party manifestos.
On the favorability of manifestos, the NDC leads the NPP by 14 points, with the NPP’s manifesto holding a net favorability rating of +6 points.
The poll also reflects widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, with 62% of voters believing Ghana is on the wrong path. This sentiment is most pronounced among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%). In contrast, 64% of NPP supporters feel the country is headed in the right direction.
President Nana Akufo-Addo’s approval rating stands at 36%, with 59% disapproving of his job performance. The government’s performance is rated poorly by 49% of voters, while 30% view it positively.
As the election nears, Mahama’s lead in key regions and demographic groups places him as the clear front-runner. Bawumia and the NPP face increasing challenges, including the rise of independent candidates and widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy.
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